Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin

Author:Peter Bevelin [Bevelin, Peter]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781578644285
Google: 7iQlAQAAIAAJ
Amazon: 1578644283
Publisher: PCA Publications L.L.C.
Published: 2007-03-14T18:30:00+00:00

At 3:42pm, San Francisco was shaken by a major earthquake.

Based on frequency and scientific data, scientists estimated in 2003 that there is a 62% probability (the error range could be anywhere from 38 to 87%) of at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake, striking somewhere in the Bay region before 2032. The probability of a major earthquake happening in any given year is therefore 3.2% (assuming the probability of a major earthquake happening in any given year stays the same). The probability that a major earthquake will happen at least once during the next 5 years is 15%.

Regardless of the factors that are considered in predicting earthquakes, chance plays a role in whether a large earthquake happens.

Can we predict the time, location and magnitude of a future earthquake? Berkeley Statistics Professors David Freedman and Philip Stark say in their report What is the chance of an earthquake that a larger earthquake in the Bay Area is inevitable, and imminent in geologic time: "Probabilities are a distraction. Instead of making forecasts, the USGS [U.S. Geological Survey] could help to improve building codes and to plan the government's response to the next large earthquake. Bay Area residents should take reasonable precautions, including bracing and bolting their homes as well a securing water heaters, bookcases, and other heavy objects. They should keep first aid supplies, water, and food at hand. They should largely ignore the USGS probability forecast."

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