Paradoxes in Probability Theory by William Eckhardt

Author:William Eckhardt
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
Publisher: Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht

1st box

Choice

Outcome

No. of cases

Million

1 Box

1,000,000

9

Million

2 Box

1,001,000

1

Empty

1 Box

0

1

Empty

2 Box

1,000

49

In this problem dominance reasoning is so compelling that it is extremely difficult for the player, as distinct from the advisor, to see his way around it. The best way to play is for the player to make a binding contract in a public manner to follow the sport strategy or forfeit all proceeds. If this is done before the box preparation, it virtually guarantees the million; if it is done after the box preparation, it still nets the million nine times out of ten.

Footnotes

1This should not be confused with the reasonable policy of updating a strategy in light of new information. Seeing the boxes provides no information that was not already taken into account in the original strategy.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.