Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do by Kaiser Fung

Author:Kaiser Fung [Fung, Kaiser]
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub, pdf
Tags: Forecasting, Statistics, Social Science, Probability & Statistics, General, Social Aspects, Business & Economics, Probabilities, Mathematics, Operations Research
ISBN: 9780071626538
Publisher: McGraw-Hill
Published: 2010-11-15T07:56:31+00:00

Some dismiss false negatives as

victimless errors. Not true. As

Michael Johnson, the superlative

sprinter with the golden Nike

spikes, wrote, “the athletes who

finished behind [the winner who

cheated] will never experience the

glory or recoup the financial benefit

they deserved for their hard work.”

To his credit, Johnson saw the

problem of false negatives. A count

of the victims of Marion Jones had

to start with her relay teammates

(who were required to return their

medals), and then there were all the

silver medalists who should have

won gold, all the bronze medalists

silver, and all the fourth-place

finishers bronze. All waited seven

years to learn they had been

cheated. (In a sardonic twist, some

“victims” turned out to be cheats,

too. For example, four of the other

seven finalists who raced with Ben

Johnson have since been exposed as

dopers.)

Many athletes get away with

cheating.

In

the

anti-doping

community, this statement is not

controversial. In a review of drug

testing for the New York Times ,

Professor

Charles

Yesalis

disclosed,

“It

is

virtually

impossible to mistakenly identify a

substance if a person tests positive

for it. [However,] it has been

proven that testing cannot catch all

substance abusers.” Dr. Rasmus

Damsgaard, who ran anti-doping

programs for professional skiing

and cycling teams, estimated that

“maybe hundreds, maybe even

thousands of EPO positive samples

are lying around in WADA-

accredited labs,” that is, after

having passed testing. Poring over

past doping cases, perhaps David

Letterman would feel inspired to

make one of his famous Top Ten

lists for easy tips to produce a false

negative. If so, he might consult the

following

methods

that

were

actually used, as presented by the

athletes with firsthand experience:

10. When the tester is looking

away, stir in a little whiskey,

and shake it. (Irish swimmer

Michelle Smith)

9. Misdirect the testers to the

wrong place, and then stage a

motorcycle accident to avoid

the out-of-competition test.

(Sprinter

Konstantinos

Kederis, also known as “the

greatest living Greek”)

8. Hold a friend’s pee inside

your body, release quickly

when the tester shows up. I get

extra

credit

for

being

cooperative. (Russian track

star Yelena Soboleva and six

teammates)

7. Believe in human frailty. If a

clueless lab technician freezes

one of the samples, the lab

cannot run a test on it. (Tyler

Hamilton)

6. It’s all about timing! Know

how long it takes for the stuff

to clear. (American sprinter

Kelli White)

5. Easy does it for guys. Wear

a prosthetic and give them fake

pee.

(Customers

of

the

Whizzinator

and

similar

products)

4. Be ahead of the curve; use

only the newest designer stuff.

They don’t know what it is, so

they don’t test for it, wink

wink. (BALCO athletes)

3. It’s a natural high. The

testosterone is all yours.

You’re just more manly than

the competition. (American

cyclist Floyd Landis)

2. It’s so easy to walk right

through the front door. Apply

for the pass to cheat; it’s

called

the

therapeutic-use

exemption. You have asthma,

you can dope. (Many athletes)

And the number one easy tip to

produce a false negative is . . . to sit

back and relax, as timid testers will

let cheaters ride off into the sunset

for fear of wrongly besmirching

honest athletes.

Could this really be true?

Conventional wisdom says testers

and cheaters engage in a high-tech

cat-and-mouse game, in which self-

righteous testers, eager—perhaps

overly eager—to catch the cheaters,

tend to cast a wide net, trapping

many innocents. However, once we

understand the incentives causing

testers to look the other way, the

game

appears

to

play

out

differently. The testers are timid

because they are swayed by

asymmetric costs from the two types

of error. A false positive—in fact,

any positive, as Tygart observed—

will be rigorously litigated by the

accused. An overturned positive

publicly humiliates the anti-doping

authorities and diminishes the

credibility of the testing program.

By contrast,

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