Bayes Theorem: A Visual Introduction For Beginners by Dan Morris

Author:Dan Morris [Morris, Dan]
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi
Publisher: Blue Windmill
Published: 2016-10-02T05:00:00+00:00

Path 4: No Rebel - Predict No

Label NN

Compute: .43 x .85 = 0.3655

** How did we find .85 ? Since the probability of both branches together is 100%, or 1, we subtracted .15 from 1. 1-.15 = .85

Step 4.

Once we have our numbers, we need to sum Path 1 and Path 3. Here is why we are doing this:

The sum of Path 1 and Path 3 tells us the probability of Intel having a positive (yes) prediction. In other words it tells us P(B), which is our missing ingredient.

When we sum Path 1 and Path 3 we are adding both ways Intel can come to a positive (yes) prediction. Path 1 represents Intel predicting “yes” when the soldier is a rebel. Path 3 represents Intel predicting “yes” when the soldier is not a rebel.When we add these paths together, we find P(B)

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