Ukraine and the Art of Strategy by Lawrence Freedman

Author:Lawrence Freedman
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2019-02-15T00:00:00+00:00

STALEMATE

The violence within Ukraine was continuing and unsettling. The costs were high. By October 8, 2014, the conflict had claimed 3,682 lives and 8,871 wounded in Eastern Ukraine.100

As the first Minsk initiative petered out, there were once again reports from NATO sources that Russian tanks, artillery, and troops had entered Ukraine. Soon the focus was on Donetsk airport, which had come to symbolize Ukrainian resistance to Russian pressure. It had first been captured by the separatists and then recaptured in May by Ukrainian forces. This was seen at the time as a demoralizing blow to the separatists. Thereafter efforts to regain the airport had been regularly rebuffed by Ukrainian defenders, although at the price of wrecked buildings. This separatist failure left many casualties and undermined claims to be controlling the region. In addition, the separatists launched an offensive against the town of Debaltseve, which had been retaken by Ukrainian forces the previous July and was important in maintaining communications between Luhansk and Donetsk.

According to NATO’s secretary-general, Russian troops were “supporting these offensive operations with command and control systems, air defense systems with advanced surface-to-air missiles, unmanned aerial systems, advanced multiple rocket launcher systems, and electronic warfare systems.”101 Yet most reports from the separatist areas were of local forces that were poorly organized and motivated. They had limited success for the energy expended. Ukrainian units held out in the Donetsk airport for a number of months. But eventually, the separatists’ superior firepower got results. In January 2015, the airport fell.102 The battle for Debaltseve was even more ferocious. As it was a wedge, with separatist forces on both sides, the large Ukrainian garrison was cut off and denied supplies. As with the earlier and costly battle of Ilovaisk the government was accused of putting large numbers of troops into a vulnerable position without adequate support, leading to a drawn-out and painful retreat and hundreds of both military and civilian casualties.103 A number of other towns and villages were seized, although the presumed next major target, the coastal city of Mariupol, stayed with Ukraine despite being subjected to regular shelling.

Against this background, in February there were once again talks in Minsk, this time filling in some of the details from the agreement of the previous September. As a cease-fire, this was no more effective than that agreed to the previous September. The Package of Measures called for:

•an immediate and comprehensive cease fire

•withdrawal of all heavy weapons from the contact line by both sides

•commencement of a dialogue on modalities of local elections

•legislation establishing pardon and amnesty in connection with events in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions

•release and exchange of all hostages and unlawfully detained persons

•safe access, delivery, storage, and distribution of humanitarian assistance on the basis of an international mechanism

•defining of modalities for full resumption of socioeconomic ties

•reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine throughout the conflict area

•withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, military equipment, and mercenaries from Ukraine

•constitutional reforms providing for decentralization as a

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