Republican Ascendancy in Southern U.S. House Elections by Seth C. McKee

Author:Seth C. McKee [McKee, Seth C.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780429966231
Google: eGEPEAAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 39946908
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2009-08-11T00:00:00+00:00

Competitiveness

A look back at Figure 1.1, which displays the partisan makeup of the southern U.S. House delegation from 1946–2004, shows that Republicans made their greatest gains in southern House elections from 1992 to 1996. In these three consecutive elections, the GOP netted thirty-two seats (nine in 1992, sixteen in 1994, and seven in 1996) to expand their share of the southern House delegation by 25 percent. These three elections are certainly atypical because Republicans did exceptionally well. By comparison, after the 1986, 1988, and 1990 elections, the partisan makeup of the southern House delegation remained exactly the same: seventy-seven Democrats and thirty-nine Republicans. Likewise, after the 1996 elections, we see evidence of a return to electoral stability with seventy-one Republicans and fifty-four Democrats following the 1996 and 1998 elections. The partisan balance was the same after the 2000 elections save for one incumbent (Virgil Goode VA 5), who switched from Democrat to Independent (seventy-one Republicans, fifty-three Democrats, one Independent). Republicans picked up seats in the 2002 midterm (seventy-six Republicans and fifty-five Democrats) and got a boost in 2004 because of a Republican gerrymander in Texas (eighty-two Republicans and forty-nine Democrats).

From 1986 through 2000, we see remarkable evidence of stability and change in southern House elections. Specifically, we see a period of dramatic electoral change (1992–1996) book-ended by two periods of electoral stability (1986–1990 and 1998–2000). Thus, the pattern is one of stability, change, and a return to stability. We see an electoral equilibrium (1986–1990), with Democrats in the majority disrupted by a period of punctuated change (1992–1996), which results in a new electoral equilibrium (1998–2000) with Republicans in the majority. Redistricting in the 2002 elections further solidifies the Republican majority, and the 2004 elections are noteworthy because redistricting in Texas almost single-handedly accounts for the GOP’s gain of six seats (five out of six were netted in Texas U.S. House districts).2

It is important to revisit the pattern of Republican advancement in contemporary southern House elections because the rapid ascendancy of the GOP from 1992–1996 affected the electoral opportunity structure for House candidates. The increase in the number of competitive districts in the redistricting year of 1992 persisted through 1996, and viable Republican candidates emerged to contest districts during this exceptionally promising span of elections. Figure 4.1 presents Congressional Quarterly’s competitiveness rankings for southern House districts from 1988 to 2004. These rankings are informative because they are not post hoc, but instead are published before the general elections. As expected, the 1992–1996 elections are exceptional because they entail a much greater percentage of competitive districts.

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