Reconstructing Past Population Trends in Mediterranean Europe (3000 BC - AD 1800) by John Bintliff Kostas Sbonias & Kostas Sbonias

Author:John Bintliff,Kostas Sbonias & Kostas Sbonias
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Casemate Publishers & Book Distributors, LLC
Published: 2017-05-15T00:00:00+00:00

PATTERN AND EXPLANATION OF DEMOGRAPHY

A major conclusion of the Durham conference was that demographic curves can be presented and should be accompanied by explicit and interdisciplinary statements on the reasoning by which interpretations of these demographic levels were reached (Wilkinson, this volume; Perkins, in press; Cambi, this volume; Novacović, this volume; Trément, this volume). Perkins (in press) has been able to indicate rates of growth, densities of occupation and the proportion of the population in town and country. Some of these conclusions may have to be revisited in the light of the survey sampling strategy, but, at least, the level of explicit explanation of the underlying assumptions makes this possible. A similar explicitness and presentation of detail by Wilkinson (this volume) allows a reconstruction of two cycles of growth from the Near Eastern evidence. These examples raise the important question of the distinction between site numbers and degree of nucleation (Wilkinson, this volume; Trément this volume). A decline in site numbers may well be compensated for demographically by a shift in population focus, resulting in the same aggregate population level of town and country taken together. Survey archaeologists must not be swayed by their success in the recovery of rural sites into thinking that these represent the full demographic pattern.

Unaligned cycles of demographic development can be reconstructed across the Mediterranean. Fluctuations will to some extent be dependent on the scale of the area under study (Wilkinson, this volume), since state management of populations and local crises may be important factors. Small areas will be more subject to change than large regions, which will generally absorb pressure on demography more readily. On the other hand certain areas of the Mediterranean clearly had low levels of population density over long historical trajectories, and these can now be picked up through survey: Langadas (Andreou and Kotsakis, this volume); Gubbio (Malone and Stoddart, 1994). The rich mosaic of Mediterranean demography is becoming apparent, and it is only archaeological survey that can achieve this.

The interpretation of these patterns is a further level of complexity which was not avoided by the presented papers. The changing capacity to mobilise manpower is a major issue in the political development of the Mediterranean. However, if there is no sense of the potential pool for control and mobilisation, many fundamental issues cannot be addressed. Zubrow (this volume) presents the base line from which to work. Chance is examined as a factor in demographic change. It is on this base line that constraining functions of increasing complexity can be applied, including forced austerity and the moulding of geographical boundaries. Wilkinson (this volume) has attempted to look at some of these principles at the micro-level, assessing population growth against production levels and climatic change. Bintliff (this volume) presents general models which may explain different demographic levels in the Mediterranean. In certain periods, the model of core and periphery appears to go some way towards explaining the relationship between early city states and the less developed ethne on their flanks. However, there is still considerable academic debate over explanations of apparent demographic trends.

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