Football Hackers by Christoph Biermann

Author:Christoph Biermann
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Blink Publishing
Published: 2019-09-20T16:00:00+00:00

‘EXPECTED ASSISTS’ AND

‘EXPECTED GOAL CHAIN’

Trainor’s analysis of Dortmund’s failings in 2014 produced a series of new metrics that attempt to provide clues about the game’s inner machinations. The quantification of certain situations – such as PPDA, a measure of pressing intensity – has become one of the key analysis trends in recent years, more often than not derived from work done by obsessive members of the global data underground.

New metrics frequently look at attacking play. Scoring goals, the game’s aim, has traditionally taken centre stage, but assists have become increasingly of interest, too. As early as 2012, Devin Pleuler – who now works as an analyst at Toronto FC – developed the concept of ‘Expected Assists’ (xA). They measure the probability of a pass being an assist. Calculations are based on the destination of the pass, on the type of pass and other factors. This model is not reliant on whether a shot comes off. All passes are taken into account. Expected Assists have since become an established metric; data providers collate its numbers.

The following table shows the ten best players for assists in the Premier League in 2017–18. ‘Chances created’ is a metric exclusively calculated by OptaPro.

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