Fantasy Football the Next Level by David Dorey

Author:David Dorey [DOREY, DAVID]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: GAM000000
ISBN: 9780446198585
Publisher: Grand Central Publishing
Published: 2007-07-31T16:00:00+00:00

SECTION III

YOUR Fantasy Draft

CHAPTER 13

THROW YOUR

PROJECTIONS AWAY

“Projections are no substitute for judgment; they merely assign a number to what a player may produce based upon previous years that will never happen again.”

PROJECTIONS ARE THE LIFEBLOOD of understanding players and creating rankings. They are a must for any serious fantasy football team owner to create. And once they are recorded, adjusted, pored over, reasoned, compared, and adjusted again, they are ready for the important step of being applied to your league’s scoring system in order to find the fantasy points per player in your league. Sort by position and descending fantasy points and you have instant rankings! Woo-hoo! Where do I sit at the draft?

Well, hold on there, Sparky. This is just the point in time that you can throw away your rankings. Or at least set them to the side. Understand that those projections have now served their main purpose—to create an ordered list of players AND hopefully to help you learn a bit about each player along the way. True enough, there is draft software out there to make the process just a simple keyboard click from projections to creating rankings. Looks great, and some software applications are incredibly slick. There are even various statistical “systems” to use to further complicate the process of determining which player to take in your draft, and they all use those wonderful projections.

Before you consider these options, recall one thing—a League Analysis and Graphing will already show you what the scoring is going to look like in your league this year: It shows the relative values between players using actual statistics from your last fantasy season. To create rankings, projections are critical to create and apply to a fantasy scoring scenario, but let’s play a little Truth or Consequences here and see what three options we have with our projected rankings:

1. Do Nothing Not only are you draft-ready, but you have some nifty-looking rankings that actually change when you alter the projections. Oh look! One fewer touchdown and he dropped 13 spots!

2. Use a Player Value System Fun with math time! Using a player value system that relies on projections to further evaluate and consider players is like betting on an inside straight in poker for every player considered. You could be right, but is it really worth betting on every time?

3. Door #3 Aka The Next Level.

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