Climate Modelling by Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Eric Winsberg

Author:Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Eric Winsberg
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

Discussion of Dynamical Downscaling Results

Despite the plethora of regional modeling studies completed over North America, it remains difficult to make definitive statements about climate change over North America from dynamically downscaled simulations, outside of perhaps the US West and Great Plains regions. In the West, for example, enhanced warming at higher elevations due to the snow-albedo feedback, changes in the timing of snow melt, and the increase in the contribution of rain instead of snow to seasonal precipitation totals are consistently reproduced projections from RCMs in most of this region. This difficulty is due to the lack of overlap of the studies and absence of a broad range of modeling uncertainties. Many studies are local-to-regional in scale, and do not use a variety of emission scenarios, AOGCMs, or RCMs. It is infrequent that the climate changes from dynamically downscaled simulations are compared to those from their parent GCMs. Similarly, when analysis focuses on temperature and/or precipitation, too seldom are attempts made to more completely explain differences in verification and differences in climate changes seen between RCM and parent AOGCM through a thorough analysis of causal atmospheric processes. It is also rare to find studies that try to go beyond verifying the performance of their dynamical downscaling approach, to showing that they do or do not add value to the projections from their coarser resolution parents, a subject that will be discussed more in Sect. 8.6.

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