AI and the Bomb by Johnson James;

Author:Johnson, James; [James, Johnson]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Oxford University Press, Incorporated
Published: 2022-12-22T23:06:41+00:00

4

AI-security dilemma

Insecurity, mistrust, and misperception under the nuclear shadow

This chapter applies the classical “security dilemma” international relations (IR) theory to consider the impact of dual-use AI technology on the uncertainties (estimates of adversaries’ “intentions” and “motives”)1 and insecurities within competitive strategic dyads—especially US-China.2 How might dual-use disruptive AI technology influence security dilemma dynamics? The chapter argues that specific structural (dual-use technology, offense-defense balance, asymmetric distribution of power, and regime type) and non-structural (socially constructed dynamics and cognitive-psychological) traits of dual-use AI technology intersect with the security dilemma theory in ways that might intensify these dynamics in competitive dyads—or “AI-security dilemma dynamics.” Specifically, security dilemma dynamics will shape and inform how AI influences relations between strategic dyads.

The “security dilemma concept”—and the broader spirals and offense-defense models3—have been used to illuminate many events and challenges in international relations, including, inter alia: explaining the origins of World War I and the Cold War;4 the cause of several ethnic-related conflicts;5 managing arms races and designing arms reduction, non-proliferation, and confidence-building measures;6 and to understand great-power transitions—namely a rising China and a declining US hegemon.7 The chapter revisits the classical security dilemma theory to consider the implications of advances in dual-use AI technology for the US-China competitive strategic dyad. The research does not expound on AI’s nature or speculate how it might alter warfare’s character or nature—which is discussed elsewhere.8 Instead, it contextualizes AI with other emerging dual-use technologies to elucidate the potential dangers it poses to the security dilemma in competitive dyads where conflict of interest exists, and empathy is scarce. What (if anything) makes AI different from other emerging technologies? And do those characteristics matter for the mechanisms described in the security dilemma?

The security dilemma can mean different things to different people. Defensive realists, for instance, have used the concept to demonstrate the potential for cooperation and peace between rival states. While offensive realists stress the inevitability of power accumulation, great-power competition, and warfare as the rational outcome,9 neoliberal scholars emphasize the positive effect democratic institutions can have on alleviating the dilemma, thus producing peaceful outcomes.10 While constructivists argue that because the security dilemma is a social condition, the condition can be mitigated through the reconstitution of identity in anarchical international politics.11 The chapter applies Shiping Tang’s “the BHJ formulation” definition of the security dilemma, derived from the original theorizing and subsequent development of the concept by Herbert Butterfield, John Herz, and Robert Jervis.12

Whereas scholars have noted the centrality of cognitive-psychological factors influencing the severity of the security dilemma, the literature on the intersection between human psychology, emerging technology, and international security is limited.13 Through illuminating the security dilemma-technology-psychology nexus in AI technology and great-power strategic rivalry, this chapter addresses the gap. In responding to this omission, the research not only establishes a theoretical framework for exploring dual-use AI technology and the security dilemma (or the “AI-security dilemma”), but also explains the potential dynamics and dangers of this rapidly evolving international security phenomena.

Drawing on multidisciplinary literature, the research highlights the importance of human

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.