Turkey's New Foreign Policy by Aaron Stein

Author:Aaron Stein [Stein, Aaron]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: History, Military, General, Political Science, International Relations
ISBN: 9781317327080
Google: teEsCgAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2015-07-16T01:25:22+00:00

Turkish Isolation

After the overthrow of Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt, Turkey was portrayed as a potential model for the Arab countries in transition. The focus on the idea of a ‘Turkish model’, however, has distracted from Ankara’s rather self-interested and uneven policies during the upheavals. Turkey’s handling of Egypt differed considerably from its approach to Tunisia, which in turn was very distinct from its handling of the situation in Libya. In Tunisia, a cautious AKP was unsure of how to act, and only embraced regime change after it become clear that Ben Ali was certain to fall from power. In Libya, by contrast, the AKP prioritised its economic interests and chose to disregard the demands of first the protesters and then the rebels with the outset of the conflict. The AKP’s policy towards the Arab upheavals therefore cannot be described as an effort to promote democracy or to stand by the people against state oppression. Instead, it has been far more nuanced, based on assumptions made about a changing regional order and how the upending of the Arab world’s political status quo would benefit the AKP.

Egypt was the exception to this rule. There, Turkey eagerly embraced regime change because of the AKP’s cool relationship with Mubarak and its belief that the installation of a like-minded political party would help to advance its regional interests, including the undoing of what intellectuals close to the party defined as the Camp David Order. The AKP’s fervent support for Morsi has since embroiled Turkey in numerous political proxy battles throughout the region. Moreover, it has seriously damaged its relationship with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, without having amounted to much in return. Turkey’s preferred party in Egypt, the FJP, has been overthrown and, with Morsi in prison, Sisi appears to be firmly in power.

Still, Turkey has been dismissive of the damage its Egypt policy has done to its foreign policy, instead embracing the idea that it stands to benefit in the long term, once the region inevitably returns to electoral politics in Egypt and the pressure for political change begins anew in countries throughout the Middle East. This perspective is based on three assumptions. First, the belief that the ‘era of nationalism’ will come to an end in the Middle East and a new crop of religiously conservative leaders will emerge, bringing an end to the existing Arab order. Second, the belief that these new religiously conservative leaders will look to Turkey — and more specifically, to the AKP — as a source of political inspiration. Third, the belief that wider religious conservatism will allow Turkey to expand its influence through a shared religious identity with like-minded states.

The interrelated events of the Arab upheavals, however, have combined to thwart Turkey’s ambitions in this regard. In contrast to its previous position of influence in the region’s post-revolutionary states, Ankara now finds itself embroiled in a proxy war in Libya, sidelined in Cairo, and unwelcome in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Indeed, even

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