The World According to China by Elizabeth C. Economy

Author:Elizabeth C. Economy [Economy, Elizabeth C.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2022-01-10T00:00:00+00:00

Conclusion

The BRI is an exquisite manifestation of Xi Jinping’s dream of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” It positions China at the center of the international system, with physical, financial, cultural, technological, and political influence flowing out to the rest of the world. It redraws the fine details of the world’s map with new railways and bridges, fiber optic cables and 5G, and ports with the potential for military bases. And it is a platform for sharing political values through capacity building on internet governance, safe cities, and media content. China has tried to portray the BRI as a multilateral arrangement and global initiative. Yet the reality is something quite different. It is a collection of often opaque bilateral agreements signed under a Chinese framework notion. The Belt and Road Forums further enhance the impression of Chinese centrality: heads of state travel to China to seek deals as supplicants to China. Even groups such as the 17+1 encourage small and middle-sized countries to compete with each other for Chinese favor rather than to unite around a common negotiating position.

The BRI has the potential to raise incomes globally and to bring much-needed investment to countries that otherwise have found it difficult to modernize their infrastructure. Some countries, such as Pakistan, are being transformed by the BRI, with new energy projects, roads, railways, a massive upgrading of both its Gwadar port and its digital infrastructure. The Port of Piraeus has become one of the top ports in Europe and ranked within the top 50 in the world. Greek officials are understandably bullish on their BRI investments. Officials in Brazil likewise view the BRI as an opportunity to partner with China on a wide range of initiatives, such as infrastructure, innovation, and sustainability. They express an enthusiasm, as well, for China’s willingness to “listen” to what countries want and need.

At the same time, BRI host countries often reflect doubts over the externalities that accompany BRI funding: opaque deal-making, rising environmental degradation and pollution, and limited attention to social impact concerns. The lack of transparency in lending ensures that Beijing retains the advantage in negotiations and facilitates corruption. Popular protests have proliferated, particularly around hard infrastructure projects, and new leaders, including those in Malaysia, Pakistan, and Tanzania, have sought to overturn or renegotiate unfavorable deal terms. At the same time, the BRI has left other countries, such as Pakistan, saddled with projects whose returns will likely never equal the initial investment and seeking additional debt relief from other international lenders. Many Chinese companies and officials themselves are concerned that a lack of understanding of host countries’ domestic political and economic situation results in suboptimal outcomes for BRI projects. Despite Beijing’s pledges to address these concerns, opinion polls indicate that few countries find China’s efforts to change course compelling.

Finally, the BRI has become a significant source of global competition. It has energized other advanced economies in Europe and Asia, as well as the United States, to develop their own infrastructure and connectivity projects to compete with Belt and Road.

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