Prisoner Reentry in the Era of Mass Incarceration by Daniel P. Mears Joshua C. Cochran

Author:Daniel P. Mears, Joshua C. Cochran [Daniel P. Mears, Joshua C. Cochran]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, Criminology, Penology
ISBN: 9781483316703
Google: gHHwBQAAQBAJ
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2014-10-27T04:38:06+00:00

The Challenges of Risk Prediction

In highlighting challenges to risk prediction, we seek to highlight the complexity of risk assessment. At the same time, we seek to demonstrate that prediction entails more than simply identifying potential recidivists. It entails failing to identify them, failing to screen out nonrecidivists or those highly unlikely to recidivate, and failing to understand what contributes to recidivism. Much risk assessment leaves the causes of potential recidivism in the equivalent of a black box. That is, even if we accurately identify someone who likely will recidivate, we frequently know little about what exactly produces that risk or therefore what to do about it. Fourth-generation risk assessment approaches avoid some of these problems, but not entirely. Here, then, we proceed to identify a select set of challenges. Others exist, and discussions of them can be found in many sources.38 Our focus, therefore, will zero in on some of the more critical challenges that will help illuminate the potential pitfalls and limits of risk prediction.

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