Incident Management for Operations by Rob Schnepp & Ron Vidal & Chris Hawley

Author:Rob Schnepp & Ron Vidal & Chris Hawley [Schnepp, Rob]
Language: eng
Format: azw3, pdf
Publisher: O'Reilly Media
Published: 2017-06-20T04:00:00+00:00

Incident Commander Tactics:

If it appears that the Grenade Thrower has lobbed a distraction, refocus the discussion with a CAN report and stick to the verifiable facts. Facts are kryptonite to the Grenade Thrower.

Grenade Throwers often cite the possibility of an extreme positive or negative outcome as justification for actions. The IC should acknowledge all possibilities, but keep the group focused on probabilities. Possible outcomes can be initially measured by yes or no.

Ask questions focused on probabilities of occurrence right now and within numerical ranges. For example, is it possible that an asteroid will crash in to the earth and cause massive damage? The answer is yes, of course, because it’s wrong to say it’s impossible. It has happened before and even though it’s been millennia since the event, it did happen and is therefore possible, although the probabilities are minimal. Ask the question this way, “On a scale of 0 to 100%, what’s the probability that an asteroid will crash to the earth today and cause massive damage?” Be careful to cut off any answer that goes down a rabbit hole of technical definitions, like if the Grenade Thrower replies “well, what’s massive damage?”

If the answer is no to a possibility question, then the issue is solved right there. For example, is it possible to walk across the ocean? The answer is no, which makes any further discussion of the event irrelevant and nothing more than an interesting thought experiment at best. In this context, the word “probable” may be interchanged with the word “likely,” indicating a strong sense that the event or consequence may occur.

An event may be possible but unlikely, which is where the Grenade Thrower may base an opinion, argument, or justification. If needed, an IC can help defeat the Grenade Thrower by distinguishing between possible and likely/probable when sorting through options or dissension on a course of action. An IC may poll the incident response group and ask if a particular outcome to an action is possible or likely/probable. Anything possible becomes some degree of likely. The groups can then rank the likely events on a 1 to 10 scale with 1 being least likely and 10 being most likely.

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