Bayesian Methods for Hackers: Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference by Davidson-Pilon Cameron

Author:Davidson-Pilon, Cameron
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Pearson Education
Published: 2015-09-30T04:00:00+00:00

4.3 The Disorder of Small Numbers

The Law of Large Numbers is only valid as N gets infinitely large, which is never truly attainable. While the Law is a powerful tool, it is foolhardy to apply it liberally. Our next example illustrates this.

4.3.1 Example: Aggregated Geographic Data

Data often comes in aggregated form. For instance, data may be grouped by state, county, or city. Of course, the population numbers vary per geographic area. If the data is an average of some characteristic of each of the geographic areas, we must be conscious of the Law of Large Numbers and how it can fail for areas with small populations.

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