Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning by Carl V. Patton & David Sawicki & Jennifer Clark

Author:Carl V. Patton & David Sawicki & Jennifer Clark [Patton, Carl V. & Sawicki, David & Clark, Jennifer]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781317350002
Google: gMpwCgAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 26584886
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 1993-01-22T00:00:00+00:00

It is the second of these that provides the advantages of a benchmark for analysis, since it matches exactly the scenarios of the action alternatives, absent only the proposed action. In all other aspects, the two states are identical, with the effects of the proposed alternative isolated. In practice, the first reference state, existing conditions, is often used because data on the current situation can be obtained more easily than for a future state. However, changes in population and patterns of development, for example, will occur whether or not a plan or public works program is implemented, and these changes cannot be distinguished from those attributable to the proposal when existing conditions are used as a reference state. The third and fourth possible reference states above suffer from the same weakness. Therefore, we recommend using the no-action alternative as the reference state.

The action alternative(s) should be subdivided in a manner that allows description of the effects of taking action on some elements and no action on some others. For example, the proposal might be subdivided so that information would be available to describe what would happen if all but the most expensive, or least cost-effective, element were implemented, or if a particularly objectionable element were shelved. An action alternative thus becomes more flexible and less of an all-or-nothing proposition. Segmenting also identifies the effects and linkages of subelements of the proposed action, allowing them to be placed in rough priority of importance. It can also lead to refined recommendations for action on parts of the proposal that meet truly critical needs or have noteworthy benefits, while eliminating portions that offer less compelling reasons for action.

Similar arguments can be advanced for segmenting the alternatives in time: proposing no action for a period followed by action. For example, an alternative under which no action lasted three years might show few adverse impacts, whereas no action for ten years might show conditions deteriorating unacceptably. The analysis may reveal several critical points rather than a continuous, smooth decline. Because it will take time to implement the proposed action, it may be important to work backward from a critical threshold, such as an expected massive failure of an existing sewage treatment system, to make sure action is taken before the threshold is crossed. Such critical points can be identified by comparing the results of action and no-action alternatives for several future dates rather than for only a single design year.

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