The Social and Behavioural Aspects of Climate Change by Martens Pim;Chang Chiung Ting; & Chiung Ting Chang

Author:Martens, Pim;Chang, Chiung Ting; & Chiung Ting Chang
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Group

9

Human responses to climate change

Flooding experiences in the Netherlands

Ruud Zaalberg and Cees J.H. Midden

Department of Industrial Engineering and Innovation Sciences,

Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands

9.1 Climate change: observations, projections and consequences

Since the early 1970s scientists have been debating heatedly about the causes and consequences of global climate change. To date, there seems to be a strong consensus among scientists about continuing and remarkable changes in the global climate over the past 150 years. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007), the global average surface temperature has increased by almost 1°C in the past 100 years. In general, climatologists and other experts agree that this global warming is partially attributable to the combustion of fossil fuels by humans. Other physical evidence pointing in the direction of global climate change is the global average sea level, which rose by approximately 17 cm during the 20th century. Thermal expansion of sea water and loss of land ice are the main causes of this effect. The IPCC (2007) further predicts that global warming will continue owing to ever-increasing human energy consumption and economic growth. Global average surface temperature will increase by another 2° to 4°C, and the sea level is projected to rise by another 20 to 60 cm during the 21st century.

Global climate change will have far-reaching consequences for delta areas throughout the world. For example, in Europe winter precipitation is projected to increase by 4–14% in the next 40–50 years. As a consequence, the volume of water from the main rivers Rhine and Meuse will increase, while at the same time drainage of water will be hampered because of the sea-level rise predicted by the IPCC (Klijn et al. 2004). Around 50% of the Netherlands lies below sea level, resulting in higher probabilities for river flooding (Van Dorland and Jansen 2006; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute 2006). Low-lying polders along these Dutch rivers are encircled and protected by so-called dyke rings. However, high-water flood defence by means of dykes may sometimes fall short as a consequence of different failing mechanisms. For example, overflowing can occur when dykes are too low or piping takes place in which dykes are sapped (see Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management 2005). In recent Dutch history two major river floods occurred, caused by extreme river discharges. In 1993 material losses were at least €23 million, and in 1995 more than 250,000 people were evacuated owing to the potential breakdown of river dykes. In contrast, during summer periods the chances of water shortage in the Rhine and the Meuse are also predicted to increase, which may lead to serious economic damage, simply because the transport of goods via these rivers will be hampered (see Chapter 2 in this book).

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