Stock Market Contest by Jason Kelly

Author:Jason Kelly [Kelly, Jason]
Language: eng
Format: epub

Friday, December 27, 2002 — Rockville, Maryland

Shen thought about David Lacey, of all people. Had David felt the same way a year ago as Shen felt now? When the days of 2001 counted down to New Year’s 2002, had Lacey realized the game was up or had he held on to hope for a miraculous rise to save him? Shen held no such hope.

The year had been one of disappointments and false turning points. He’d made all the wrong calls. He’d begun the year up 1,328 percent and had since lost half of his portfolio for a net gain of only 614 percent. When Lacey exited the contest, his portfolio had been up 797 percent, a substantial gap above Shen’s current standing. Shen couldn’t even take comfort in leaving the contest with the highest final tally. Beyond that, he couldn’t boast having risen the highest of any participant so far. That honor belonged to Lacey, too. He peaked at 1,700 percent at the end of 1999. The highest Shen reached was 1,600 percent at the end of 2000.

He resigned himself to exiting the contest. The Dow was down 16 percent with only two trading days left for the year. Shen would lose more than twice the Dow’s loss for the second year, and everybody knew what that meant.

His fellow contestants didn’t contact him. He wondered as November turned to December and his prospects dimmed whether he’d receive notes of condolence. He thought maybe somebody would congratulate him on a fine effort. Nobody did anything. The silence left him with his thoughts alone, and they concocted the most aggravating reactions among his peers. They gloated. They laughed. They shook their heads and thought, “What a shame.” They drew a line through his name and took a satisfying drink. Shen’s pride hurt more than his pocketbook. Financially, he’d be fine, but would he ever live down letting a huge lead wither away?

He looked around his home office at the stacks of reports, the computer keyboard with letters worn off from excessive typing, the charts on the walls, and the clipped articles filed by date and subject in a thin-drawer glass cabinet. He’d worked hard for that 614 percent gain. It was a worthy achievement.

“The Dow gained only 118 percent,” he told the night.

He also knew he was right to focus on biotechnology. It would return far more than the broad market and do better than most other sectors in his lifetime. He had focused on the right sector. He just wasn’t able to time it right for the contest’s downside rules.

“I don’t care what anybody says,” he muttered. “Biotech is a long-term winner.”

Celera, however, wasn’t. He would admit that. His own company had started its life in such an amazing bloom of potential. It had been blinding. Dr. Venter’s ambition lit up the future. When Celera’s product, the genome map, entered the public domain, business prospects for the miraculous achievement rotted away.

In January, Dr. Venter resigned as president and was replaced by Kathy Ordoñez in April.

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