New Thinking in International Relations Theory by Michael W. Doyle

New Thinking in International Relations Theory by Michael W. Doyle

Author:Michael W. Doyle [Doyle, Michael W.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780429967238
Google: -f_EDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 40699599
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 1997-09-01T00:00:00+00:00


I should emphasize that these conditions are neither inevitable nor exhaustive, and that data sometimes forcefully support one model in preference to others. It is precisely when experience provides strong and direct feedback (as in the map example) that formal models tend to converge the most rapidly, to evolve the most, and to provide highly fruitful information that could not be obtained otherwise.

Suppose, however, that some or all of these conditions do apply, so that data place weak constraints on models. Is there any way, then, to develop confidence that a particular image is undistorted? Here the prospects are dimmer, though reassurance may be gained when the predictions derived from many different models all converge on a single image. Here is how one well-known modeler of SDI, Barry O'Neill, put the argument:

A study like ours is part of a growing body of quantitative models of BMD [ballistic missile defense] and stability. Each of these projects made slightly different assumptions about the components of the stability model—definition of stability, details of the nuclear exchange, dynamics of space defenses—but there is often the common result that middle levels of BMD are less stable, even with defense invulnerability. . . . This type of convergence gives us confidence in the findings despite each model's specific assumptions.23



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